Wheee - that was fun!
We had the dip we played for at the open but never came near our danger levels. We took bearish positions into the energy report, which had the big build we expected but we held our levels and our 11:18 Member Alert set bullish upside targets saying: "Nice bounce to retest our levels yet again. Effectively we fell from 7,400 to 7,285 so 115 and a 20% bounce is 23 so 7,308 is the line in the sand on the Dow. S&P fell from 778 to 767 so call 770 the big difference between a weak bounce and a serious attempt at a retrace. Russell is our bounciest index, back at 402 so let’s keep a close eye on them to see what’s real."
We had a weak bounce right back to my target 7,308 and, at 11:40, we were back to 7,286 but I said to Members: "Now next time they break up over the watch levels I’ll be a little more impressed if we survive this…" We took a stab at a couple of bearish covers, which quickly stopped out so at 1:41 I sent out an alert looking to take advantage of the dip, calling for the DIA $75s at .43 with a plan to flip bearish if the $72 puts hit .60 after the Fed minutes as we were expecting a huge move one way or the other. We never did need the put side and hit our $1.50 target (up 252%) just over an hour later. When we hit our stop out (.25 trailing stop).
I sent out an alert at 3:02, calling a top at 7,520 and flipping 70% bearish (the most we’ve been in a very long time) saying: "Wow, this is nuts! The Fed will buy Treasury paper - hooray! Scary that they have to, indicates last, desperate move if you think about it. Very important note to all. Last Fed day was Jan 28th, we gained 200 points on the day and it completely reversed the next day so cover, balance etc…. I personally and going 70/30 bearish here - let them keep going tomorrow and I’ll flip for the duration." So that’s our game plan for today, back to watching our levels and hoping for a reason to believe in the rally monkey once again.
Now for the bad news:
We had the dip we played for at the open but never came near our danger levels. We took bearish positions into the energy report, which had the big build we expected but we held our levels and our 11:18 Member Alert set bullish upside targets saying: "Nice bounce to retest our levels yet again. Effectively we fell from 7,400 to 7,285 so 115 and a 20% bounce is 23 so 7,308 is the line in the sand on the Dow. S&P fell from 778 to 767 so call 770 the big difference between a weak bounce and a serious attempt at a retrace. Russell is our bounciest index, back at 402 so let’s keep a close eye on them to see what’s real."
We had a weak bounce right back to my target 7,308 and, at 11:40, we were back to 7,286 but I said to Members: "Now next time they break up over the watch levels I’ll be a little more impressed if we survive this…" We took a stab at a couple of bearish covers, which quickly stopped out so at 1:41 I sent out an alert looking to take advantage of the dip, calling for the DIA $75s at .43 with a plan to flip bearish if the $72 puts hit .60 after the Fed minutes as we were expecting a huge move one way or the other. We never did need the put side and hit our $1.50 target (up 252%) just over an hour later. When we hit our stop out (.25 trailing stop).
I sent out an alert at 3:02, calling a top at 7,520 and flipping 70% bearish (the most we’ve been in a very long time) saying: "Wow, this is nuts! The Fed will buy Treasury paper - hooray! Scary that they have to, indicates last, desperate move if you think about it. Very important note to all. Last Fed day was Jan 28th, we gained 200 points on the day and it completely reversed the next day so cover, balance etc…. I personally and going 70/30 bearish here - let them keep going tomorrow and I’ll flip for the duration." So that’s our game plan for today, back to watching our levels and hoping for a reason to believe in the rally monkey once again.
Now for the bad news:
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