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North/Latin America INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANG TIME

North/Latin America INDEX VALUE CHANGE % CHANG TIME
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 7,278.38 -122.42 -1.65% 03/20

S&P 500 INDEX 768.54 -15.50 -1.98% 03/20

NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 1,457.27 -26.21 -1.77% 03/20

S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 8,506.35 -184.14 -2.12% 03/20

MEXICO BOLSA INDEX 19,363.30 -233.21 -1.19% 03/20

BRAZIL BOVESPA STOCK IDX 40,076. 41 377.02 -0.93% 03/20

More North/Latin America Indexes Europe/Africa/Middle East INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME

DJ EURO STOXX 50 € Pr 2,050.96 11.38 0.56% 03/20

FTSE 100 INDEX 3,842.85 25.92 0.68% 03/20
CAC 40 INDEX 2,791.14 14.15 0.51% 03/20

DAX INDEX 4,068.74 25.28 0.63% 03/20

IBEX 35 INDEX 7,710.00 8.40 0.11% 03/20

S&P/MIB INDEX 14,948.00 199.00 1.35% 03/20

AEX-Index 212.71 2.33 1.11% 03/20

OMX STOCKHOLM 30 INDEX 661.59 -17.99 -2.65% 03/20 SWISS MARKET INDEX 4,787.17 -7.46 -0.16% 03/20

More Europe/Africa/Middle East Indexes Asia/Pacific INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME

NIKKEI 225 7,945.96 -26.21 -0.33% 03/19

HANG SENG INDEX 12,833.51 -297.41 -2.26% 03/20
S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 3,465.80 -14.40 -0.41% 03/20

Dow -122.42 -1.65% 7,278.38

Nasdaq -26.21 -1.77% 1,457.27

S&P -15.50 -1.98% 768.54
United States Markets

S&P 500 768.54 -1.98%

DOW 7,278.38 -1.65%

NASDAQ 1,457.27 -1.77%

NYSE 4,832.13 -2.13%

Russell 3000 443.43 -2.12%
The Americas Markets
Brazil Bovespa 40,076.41 -0.93%

Chile IPSA 2,487.73 -0.59%

TSX Venture 901.80 -0.20%

Starting trade log on to: http://forexchangenews.blogspot.com/

US Dollar Losing Its Economic, Safety And Reserve Advantages

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 03.23.09

Written by John Kicklighter, Danial keven, John Rivera, Ilya Spivak, David Song, Currency Analysts
US Dollar Losing Its Economic, Safety And Reserve Advantages

Euro Forecast to Gain Against US Dollar, but Doubts RemainJapanese Yen Weakness May Continue as BoJ Buys

BondsBritish Pound to Fall as Data Points Signals

Deepening RecessionSwiss Franc to Reverse Gains as Risky Assets Lose MomentumCanadian Dollar Underperforms on Fundamental

ForecastAustralian Dollar May Benefit As Inflation Concerns RiseNew Zealand Dollar’s Rally Needs Favorable Data To Survive

The US dollar was put through the ringer this past week as market participants were left to wonder where the currency would find strength as its primary, fundamental pillars started to give way. There is no better gauge for the health of the greenback than price action itself. The dollar index suffered a 345 pip decline through Friday’s close – the biggest weekly drop in years.

The US dollar was put through the ringer this past week as market participants were left to wonder where the currency would find strength as its primary, fundamental pillars started to give way. There is no better gauge for the health of the greenback than price action itself. The dollar index suffered a 345 pip decline through Friday’s close – the biggest weekly drop in years.

US Dollar Losing Its Economic, Safety And Reserve Advantages Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bearish - UN panel and Russia prepared to recommend abandoning the dollar as the world’s reserve currency- Fed holds rates, announces quantitative easing and a sizable increase to MBS purchases- Industrial production runs its worst slump since 1975 suggesting the worst of the recession has yet to be seen
The US dollar was put through the ringer this past week as market participants were left to wonder where the currency would find strength as its primary, fundamental pillars started to give way. There is no better gauge for the health of the greenback than price action itself. The dollar index suffered a 345 pip decline through Friday’s close – the biggest weekly drop in years. And, though the retracement of the past two weeks has unwound a significant share of the previous eight months’ of bullish trending; the pull back may not stop there. As fear settles and global policy officials attempt to stabilize the financial and economic crises, the market will grow increasingly critical of the stalwart dollar. With a clear field of view, traders will take weight of the United States position in the recession curve; the unit’s status as a safe haven; and more importantly, its role as the world’s reserve currency.
Of these three critical themes, the threat to the dollar’s standing as the world’s primary store of wealth is the most elemental. One of the primary reasons (aside from being backed by the largest economy in the world) the greenback has dominated as the world’s most liquid and actively traded currency is the fact that nearly ever central bank and financial player transacts through it. With this standardization, the dollar lines reserves, is used to purchase commodities and is used as a benchmark for currency pegs among other things. This is why suggestions that the Commission of Experts on International Financial Reform panel will recommend to the UN that the dollar be abandoned as the world’s currency reserve carry’s so incendiary. This is not the first time an official or group has called for such a move; but the argument has not been made under the level of stress the markets are currently experience. With so many ‘too-big-to-fail’ market structures and participants having succumbed to this crisis, there is little reason why such an out-dated norm will not be reconsidered. In fact, the argument for a basket of currencies taking the place of sole dollar is so persuasive that the topic will also come up at the G-20 summit on April 2nd – where anything official will likely take place.
In the meantime, fundamental traders will focus their attentions on the greenback’s fading appeal as a key safe haven currency. It was the height of the panic back in October that really cemented the currency’s place as a harbor for the world’s money. Fear left investors with one concern; and that was capital preservation. Offering the deepest pool of liquidity and the backing of the world’s largest government, US Treasuries (and by proxy, the dollar) was bought at a furious pace. However, in the months that have past, the market has cooled off. Traders and money managers are still worried about protecting their funds; but they are doing so with a mind for potential return and the long-term viability of their investments. Over the past weeks, the US has had to inflate its balance sheet, take up the reins of quantitative easing, take over two corporate credit unions and battle a deepening recession. This is not the laundry list of a safe, long-term investment.
And, when these two major market dynamics are not in play, dollar traders will fall back on the now-ubiquitous recession contest. Negative growth is universal problem; but there are nonetheless leaders and laggards in this race. After the first, aggressive round of policy action from US officials, market participants were ready to believe that the US was perhaps ahead of the recession curve. However, as the economy nears depression levels and promising alternatives emerged (like Australia), this notion began to fade. This is where next week’s docket comes into play. Final GDP, recent consumer spending and housing data will all add to the debate. - JK

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Fall as Treasury's Plan Spurs Investor Optimism, 6.84% Rally in DJIA
The US dollar and Japanese yen were the weakest of the majors as the “safe havens” didn’t stand to benefit from a rebound in risk appetite. The improvement in investor sentiment that sent high-yielding currencies surging and the DJIA up 6.84 percent was spurred Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s announcement of the government’s plan to remove toxic assets from the books US financial institutions. The plan includes investor financing for up to $1 trillion in purchases of illiquid real-estate assets, with a portion of the funding coming from remaining TARP funds and part relying on funding from the Federal Reserve and debt guarantees by the FDIC. The ultimate goal of the plan is to restore faith in the health of US banks so that they will not only lend to eachother, but also lend to businesses and consumers, and subsequently bring down borrowing costs. Since the plan depends on private investors stepping up to the plate, it will likely take time for any sort of results to be reflected in the credit markets, but based on the rally in US equities, especially financial shares, stock traders seem to have given this plan their seal of approval.Meanwhile, US economic data was surprisingly strong, as the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing home sales unexpectedly rose 5.1 percent in February, bringing the annual rate of sales up to 4.72 million from 4.49 million. A breakdown of the report shows that total inventories went unchanged at 9.7 months, with single family supplies down to 9.1 months from 9.2 months and condo/co-op supplies up to 14.7 months from 13.4 months. Interestingly enough, median home prices rose slightly to $165,400 from $164,800, but in the grand scheme of things, values are still down a whopping 15.5 percent from a year earlier. Regardless, it seems that the combination of more affordable homes along with lower borrowing costs and tax credits from the government’s fiscal stimulus plan have helped to plant the seeds of recovery in the sector. That said, climbing unemployment will impede all of those other factories and as a result, the US is unlikely to experience any sort of true rebound in home buying until the recession comes to an end.Related Articles: US Dollar Weekly Trading Forecast, Japanese Yen Weekly Trading Forecast

The New Currency Act of 1871 established the yen

What is the Japanese yen (JPY)?

The yen is the official national currency of Japan, and is denoted by JPY. The Meiji government introduced the yen to replace the previous complex system of the Edo Period, where there was no fixed exchange rate between the various coins used. The New Currency Act of 1871 established the yen as the official unit of currency and moved Japan onto the Gold Standard. It was named the "yen" because of the direct translation to "round object." In April of 1949, the yen was pegged at 1 USD = ¥360, where it stayed until 1971. At this time, however, the Bretton Woods system collapsed. This international monetary system, based on stable and adjustable exchange rates, was reluctantly switched to a regime of floating exchange rates and the value of the yen started to float as it still does today.

Political Structure The head of the Japanese parliamentary system is the Prime Minister, who to most is considered a symbol of the state rather than a divine figure. There is a Diet made up of a 500-member House of Representatives and a 252-member House of Councilors. The Prime Minister's cabinet is elected by the Diet from within and the Prime Minister can request that new members be elected if he is dissatisfied with initial elections. There is a Supreme Court, on which judges sit for life.
Prominent Figures The current Prime Minister of Japan is Junichiro Zoizumi. He was originally a member of the Diet and was elected to 11 consecutive terms. The Japanese Central Bank determines the country's monetary policy, and is governed by bank President Toshihiko Fukui.
Unique Characteristics Japan is most vulnerable to rising crude oil prices, as it imports all its oil and, being an export-dependent nation, is highly sensitive to rising energy costs. With the continual increase in oil prices in recent years, the value of the Japanese yen has taken a toll. Japan's foreign trade industry maintains an isolationist view. Japan lags behind the rest of world in regards to foreign trade, bringing about a number of structural problems as well as low productivity for domestic companies. The yen is affected since it only circulates within Japan; this lack of circulation outside of its own country makes the JPY weak. When the strength of the yen rises, it hurts the manufacturing industry of Japan, which is a large component of the Japanese economy. Companies are investing in lower-cost nations since the yen is so strong and would cost the companies more money to trade with Japan.
Economic Data
ECONOMIC

INDICATOR UNITS 2005 FORECAST 2006 FORECAST
Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) Billion95 JPY (%YA) 555952 (+0.9) 565037 (+1.6)
Private Consumption

Billion 95 JPY (%YA) 298806 (+0.8) 302691 (+1.3)
Consumer Price

Index (CPI) 1995=100 (%YA) 98 (-0.3) 98 (-0.1)
Unemployment Rate% 4.8 4.8
Total Production 1995=100 (%YA) 102 (+1.8) 104 (+1.9)
Current Account

Billion 95 JPY (% of GDP) 17078 (+3.4) 16413 (+3.2)
Exports Billion 95 JPY (%YA) 77479 (+3.7) 81358 (+5.0)
Imports Billion 95 JPY (%YA) 54182 (+4.6) 57048 (+5.3)
Investment Billion 95 JPY (%YA) 138930 (+0.7) 141685 (2.0)
Average Daily Range Over Three Year Period: 1.022269 Average Monthly Range Over Three Year Period: 4.91561
Key Economic FactorsIndustrial Production: The IP Index, measuring trends in the output of Japanese manufacturing, mining and utilities, is extremely important for gauging the state of the economy (as industrial production and inventory accumulation are highly correlated with a large share of the variation in national output). The outlook for production is highly dependent on the strength of Japanese exports. However, an impending yuan revaluation is a key issue because this will tend to increase Japan's ability to export to China and also boost the competitive standing of Japanese products on other countries' store shelves.

Key Economic FactorsIndustrial Production: The IP Index, measuring trends in the output of Japanese manufacturing, mining and utilities, is extremely important for gauging the state of the economy (as industrial production and inventory accumulation are highly correlated with a large share of the variation in national output). The outlook for production is highly dependent on the strength of Japanese exports. However, an impending yuan revaluation is a key issue because this will tend to increase Japan's ability to export to China and also boost the competitive standing of Japanese products on other countries' store shelves.

Foreign Trade: Import and export figures measure the value of goods shipped into and out of Japan. Exports figures (by product and destination) are usually closely followed, along with imports figures, which indicate the strength of domestic demand. Although China has been the chief contributors to Japanese export growth in recent years, the U.S. economy is regaining sway in becoming the most important market for Japanese companies. Forecasts indicate that the re-emergence of the U.S. is a very good thing for Japan. However, the U.S. will take time to have as dynamic an effect in Japanese sales as China has had in the past. Predictions are that double digit export growth figures are unlikely until China develops a renewed taste for Japanese wares.

Average Rates for EUR to USD

EXCHANGE RATES

2008 Average Rates for EUR to USD January 1.40742 July 1.57655

February 1.47583 August 1.49567

March 1.33248 September 1.43632

April 1.57589 October 1.32926

May 1.34563 November 1.27394

June 1.55682 December 1.3535

Data delayed at least 20 minutes

Market Percent Gainers

Market Percent Gainers
Symbol=Name====Change %
SPRD SPREADT. +88.42%
MNOV Medicin... +53.41%
CNLG CONOLOG +51.93%
IDJ DOW JON.. +47.58%
LCAPB Libert ... +43.39%

Percent Losers
Symbol=Name== Change %
CBK CHRISTO.. -27.42%
PKOH Park-Oh... -25.36%
SHBI Shore B... -23.19%
WBNK Waccama.. -22.61%
KHD KHD HUM..-21.85%

ISO Name Selling Rate Buiyng Rate

Currency Rates 28-March-2009

USD EUR CAD GBP AUD MXN JPY

1USD = 1.000 0.752 1.240 0.699 1.441 14.332 97.855
1EUR = 1.329 1.000 1.648 0.928 1.914 19.047 130.040
1CAD = 0.806 0.607 1.000 0.563 1.162 11.558 78.915
1GBP = 1.432 1.077 1.775 1.000 2.062 20.519 140.093
1AUD = 0.694 0.522 0.861 0.485 1.000 9.949 67.927
1MXN = 0.070 0.053 0.087 0.049 0.101 1.000 6.827
1 JPY = 0.010 0.008 0.013 0.007 0.015 0.146 1.000

Currency Rate

Type FREE-DELIVERY in the coupon box when making an order Foreign
currency
Rate
Australia-Dollars- 1.9697

Australia-Travellers Cheques 1.9697 Bahrain-Dinar 0.5148
Barbados-Dollar 2.6933 Bermuda - Dollars 1.3395
Brazil - Real 2.8834 Bulgaria - Leva 1.9681
Canada - Dollars 1.7109 Canada - Travellers Cheques 1.7109
China - Yuan Renminbi 8.9087 Croatia - Kuna 7.3714
Czech - Koruny 27.0662 Denmark - Kroner 7.5751
Dominican - Pesos 46.9900 Egypt - Pounds 7.1734
Euro1.0329 Euro - Travellers Cheques 1.0329
Gambia Dalasi 33.0523 Hong Kong - Dollars 10.5922
Hungary - Forint 298.2478 Indonesia - Rupiah 14,555.9700
Israel - Shekels 5.6845 Jamaica - Dollar 115.2500
Japan - Yens 136.2121 Japanese - Travellers Cheques 136.2121
Jordan - Dinar 0.9273 Kenya - Shilling 106.9040
Malaysia - Ringgit 4.9196 Mexico - Pesos 19.2665
New Zealand - Dollars 2.3037 Norway - Kroner 8.9346
Philippines - Pesos 61.6555 Poland - Zloty 4.6093
Russia - Ruble 45.0368 Saudi Arabia - Riyals 5.1564
Singapore - Dollars 2.0264 South Africa - Rands 12.6623
South Korea - Won 1,785.1575 Sweden - Kroner 11.0657
Switzerland - Francs 1.5563 Thailand - Bahts 46.3190
Turkey - New Lira 2.2610 UK - Travellers Cheques 0.9750
United Arab Emirates Dirham 5.0686 USA - Dollars 1.3994
USA - Travellers Cheques 1.3994
Best Rates - Next Working Day Delivery to Your Door - Commission Fre

INDEX VALUE CHANGE

03/20




Dow -122.42 -1.65% 7,278.38
Nasdaq -26.21 -1.77% 1,457.27
S&P -15.50 -1.98% 768.54


United States Markets
S&P 500 768.54 -1.98%
DOW 7,278.38 -1.65%
NASDAQ 1,457.27 -1.77%
NYSE 4,832.13 -2.13%
Russell 3000 443.43 -2.12%



The Americas Markets
Brazil Bovespa
40,076.41 -0.93%
Chile IPSA
2,487.73 -0.59%
TSX Venture
901.80 -0.20%






beforing starting trade log on to us http://forexchangenews.blogspot.com

Company Sector Friday's 2009 Scouter Close Change Score

Occidental Petroleum Oil and nature gas $56.74 -5% 10
Exxon Mobil Oil and natural gas $66.09 -17% 9
Peabody Energy Coal $26.81 18% 8
Petrobras Oil and natural gas $32.27 32% 8
Dynegy Electric utilities $1.74 -13% 8
National Oilwell Varco Oilfield services $30.25 24% 8
Schlumberger Oilfield services $41.52 -2% 8
Valero Energy Oil refining and market $18.03 -17% 8
XTO Energy Oil and natural gas $32.83 -7% 8
Adobe Systems Software $20.46 -4% 10

the tips how get the traffice on your

we just ommeted the tips how get the traffice on your site we are up grading it new tip 'll be comming soon by optmizer

Wheee - that was fun!
We had the dip we played for at the open but never came near our danger levels. We took bearish positions into the energy report, which had the big build we expected but we held our levels and our 11:18 Member Alert set bullish upside targets saying: "Nice bounce to retest our levels yet again. Effectively we fell from 7,400 to 7,285 so 115 and a 20% bounce is 23 so 7,308 is the line in the sand on the Dow. S&P fell from 778 to 767 so call 770 the big difference between a weak bounce and a serious attempt at a retrace. Russell is our bounciest index, back at 402 so let’s keep a close eye on them to see what’s real."
We had a weak bounce right back to my target 7,308 and, at 11:40, we were back to 7,286 but I said to Members: "Now next time they break up over the watch levels I’ll be a little more impressed if we survive this…" We took a stab at a couple of bearish covers, which quickly stopped out so at 1:41 I sent out an alert looking to take advantage of the dip, calling for the DIA $75s at .43 with a plan to flip bearish if the $72 puts hit .60 after the Fed minutes as we were expecting a huge move one way or the other. We never did need the put side and hit our $1.50 target (up 252%) just over an hour later. When we hit our stop out (.25 trailing stop).
I sent out an alert at 3:02, calling a top at 7,520 and flipping 70% bearish (the most we’ve been in a very long time) saying: "Wow, this is nuts! The Fed will buy Treasury paper - hooray! Scary that they have to, indicates last, desperate move if you think about it. Very important note to all. Last Fed day was Jan 28th, we gained 200 points on the day and it completely reversed the next day so cover, balance etc…. I personally and going 70/30 bearish here - let them keep going tomorrow and I’ll flip for the duration." So that’s our game plan for today, back to watching our levels and hoping for a reason to believe in the rally monkey once again.
Now for the bad news:

Unfortunately

Unfortunately, what happens next can be very ugly if we can’t turn it back up right away next week. We went into the weekend 55% bearish but we had a discussion about what to do on a "Black Monday" - very sobering discussion for a Friday afternoon. Our fear is that Japan, which has been closed during our 200-point drop of the last 2 sessions, will wake up on Monday to see that the dollar is now 95 Yen or less and will gap down 5% so we’ll be watching the critical 7,800 line on the Nikkei, who are the first market to open Sunday night. The Hang Seng already gave up 2.5%, completing the requisite 20% pullback off their recent run and a drop in the Nikkei is likely to push them under the 12,800 line as well.
Since the FTSE, DAX and CAC are all percariously balanced at their own 10% lines, WITHOUT the requisite 20% retrace so far, we can imagine a poor Asian session leading to a minimum 2.5% pullback in Europe. If we open Monday morning with Europe already down 2.5%, it’s very easy to…

Price indicator

Name Price indicator Numeric change AGK
AGL ENERGY $14.42 -$0.47 AMC
AMCOR $4.40 -$0.16 AMP
AMP $4.37 -$0.19 ANZ
ANZ BANK $14.55 -$0.21 ASX
ASX $28.90 - $1.05 AXA
AXA ASIA $3.54 - $0.03 BHP
BHP BLT $32.18 $0.93 BSL
BLUESCOPE $2.52 $0.05 BXB
BRAMB LTD $5.71 $0.15 CBA
CWLTH BANK $34.00 -$0.00 CCL
CC AMATIL $8.15 -$0.02 CSL
CSL $30.65 -$0.78 CWN
CROWN $5.87 -$0.11 FGL
FOSTERS $5.11 -$0.16 FMG
FORTESCUE $2.18 -$0.14 FXJ
FAIRFAX $1.04 -$0.03 GMG
GOOD GROUP $0.27 -$0.08 GPT
GPT $0.29 -$0.14 IAG
INSUR.AUST $3.40 -$0.05 IPL
INCITEC PV $2.24 -$0.04 LEI
LEIGHTON $19.31 -$0.69 LGL
LIHIR. $3.38 $0.12 LLC
LEND LEASE $6.23 -$0.12 MAP
MACAIRPORT $1.69 -$0.15 MIG
MACQ INFRA $1.27 -$0.01 MQG
MACQ GROUP $23.50 -$1.10 NAB
NAT. BANK $19.12 -$0.38 NCM
NEWCREST $34.10 $1.01 NWS
NEWSCORP $10.38 -$0.34 ORG
ORIGIN ENE $14.15 $0.20 ORI
ORICA $14.28 $0.49 OST
ONESTEEL $2.11 -$0.05 QAN
QANTAS $1.70 -$0.05 QBE
QBE INSUR. $18.56 -$1.23 RIO
RIO TINTO $46.85 $1.36 SGP
STOCKLAND. $2.92 -$0.32 SHL
SONIC HLTH $10.80 -$0.10 STO
SANTOS $15.50 $0.15 SUN
SUN MET $6.05 $0.30 TAH
TABCORP $6.33 -$0.03 TCL
TRANSURBAN $4.45 $0.18 TEL
TELECOM NZ $1.86 -$0.08 TLS
TELSTRA $3.03 $0.07 TOL
TOLLHOLDGS $5.99 -$0.21 WBC
WESTPAC $18.17 -$0.03 WDC
WESTFIELDG $10.27 $0.06 WES
WESFARMER $18.03 -$0.46 WOR
WORLEYPARS $18.58 $0.78 WOW
WOOLWORTHS $24.75 -$0.44 WPL
WOODSIDE $37.42 $0.45 WPL

Name last change Numeric change MQG
MACQ GROUP $24.60 $1.97 NCM
NEWCREST $33.09 $1.72 CBA
CWLTH BANK $34.00 $1.30 ASX
ASX $29.95 $1.20 QBE
QBE INSUR. $19.79 $1.09

NASDAQ Today's Market Stats

NASDAQ Volume: 691,481,704

NASDAQ 100 1212.51 8.3 UP 0.69%
NASDAQ 100 PMI 1209.47 5.26 UP 0.44%
NASDAQ 100 AHI 1202.42 -1.79 DN 0.15

S&P 500 784.50 0.46 UP 0.06%
Russell 2000 413.47 0.21 UP 0.05%

Company Last Sale* Change Net / % Share Volume

NeurogesX, Inc. $ 3 1.07 UP 55.60% 27,386

Books-A-Million, Inc $ 3.87 0.57 UP 17.27% 51,981

Kirkland's, Inc. $ 3.98 0.52 UP 15.03% 177,763

Bank of Florida Corporation $ 3.888 0.39 UP 11.09% 10,416

Unico American Corporation $ 7.26 0.68 UP 10.25% 8,400

52 Week High Low
NASDAQ 3 3
Amex 0 0
NYSE 0 2

Stock Analyst Changes

Intraday Recommendations ::::::::::::::: Forecasts
10 Upgrades 312 Increased
16 Downgrades 769 Decreased
19 Coverage Initiated - - - - - - -

Saudis State Stocks To Boost Lending

Saudis State Stocks To Boost Lending

Last Value 16Mar 3:39GMT 4 ,364.89
Change 83.63 ( 1.95%)
Previous Close 4,281.26
Open 4,281.26

Day High - Low 4,371.44 - 4,273.19 Year High - Low 10,089.52- 4,130.01 YTD Change 9.12%

Market Digest 16Mar 15:05GMT Total Market Cap USD 218,342,079,456 Volume 199,755,483 Value Traded USD * 1,029,706,906 Transactions 123,742 Traded / Listed Stocks 125 / 127 Stocks Movement 90 Up - 25 Down - 10 Unchanged Exchange Info

» Exchange Info

DAILY REPORT

Date : 16-03-2009.
Time: 03:57 NYT

EURUSD: 1.2944
USDJPY: 98.28
GBPUSD: 1.4093
USDCHF: 1.1874
AUDUSD: 0.6585
USDCAD: 1.2696
AUDJPY: 64.72
EURJPY: 127.22
GBPJPY: 138.53
EURGBP: 0.9180
GBPCHF: 1.6742
EURCHF: 1.5370

3/16 03:00 E-15
Germany January Import Prices y/y
-5.4% -5.1% 3/16 03:00 E-15
Germany January Import Prices m/m
-0.5% -4.0% 3/16 06:00 E-15
February HICP Final y/y
1.2% 1.1% 3/16 06:00 E-15
February HICP Final m/m
0.4% -0.8% 3/16 06:00 E-15

February Inflation y/y n\f
1.6% 3/16 06:00 E-15
February Inflation m/m n\f
-1.3% 3/16 06:00 E-15
February HICP Core y/y
1.6% 1.8% 3/16 06:00 E-15
February HICP Core m/m
0.4% 1.1% 3/16 08:30
Canada Q4 Capacity Utilization
75.3% 77.4% 3/16 08:30

US March NY Fed Manufacturing
-32.0 -34.65 3/16 09:15

US February Industrial Production m/m
-1.0% -1.8% 3/16 13:00

US March NAHB Housing Market Index
8.0% 9.0% 3/16 19:50

Japan January Tertiary Index
-0.5% -1.6% 3/17 00:00
Japan March BOJ Rate Decision
3/17 06:00 E-15

Germany March Zew Survey
-9.3 -5.8 3/17 06:00 E-15
Germany March Zew Survey (current)
-92.0 -86.2 3/17 08:30

Analysis

Australian

Forex

Market

Analysis

The need for intelligent monitoring systems has become a necessity to keep track of the complex forex market. The forex market is difficult to understand by an average individual. However, once the market is broken down into simple terms, the average individual can begin to understand the foreign exchange market and use it as a financial instrument for future investing. This paper is an attempt to compare the performance of a Takagi- Sugeno type neuro-fuzzy system and a feed forward neural network trained using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm to predict the average monthly forex rates. The exchange values of Australian dollar are considered with respect to US dollar, Singapore dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen and United Kingdom pound. The connectionist models were trained using 70% of the data and remaining was used for testing and validation purposes. It is observed that the proposed connectionist models were able to predict the average forex rates one month ahead accurately. Experiment results also reveal that neuro-fuzzy technique performed better than the neural network.

1 Introduction
Creating many international businesses, the globalization has made the international trade, international financial transactions and investment to rapidly grow. Globalisation is followed by foreign exchange market also known as forex. The forex is defined as a change in a market value relationship between national currencies (at a particular point in time) that produces profits, or losses, for all foreign currency traders (Long and Walter, 2001). As such, it plays an important role of providing payments in between countries, transferring funds from one currency to another and determining the exchange rate (Forexcapital, 2001).
The forex is the largest and the most liquid market in the world with a daily turnover of around

1 trillion U.S.
dollars (Usfxm, 2001). It was founded in 1973 with the deregulation of the foreign exchange rate in the USA and other developed countries. Namely, before 1973 the fixed exchange rates regime was used for global currency relationships. It was based on the Bretton Woods’ agreement from 1944 with American dollar as an anchor for all free world currencies. The American dollar has been a reserve currency for the world that was
based on gold standard. No other country guaranteed to exchange its currency for a gold. However, in 1960s and early 1970s the global economic crisis brought on by the worldwide inflation has shown that The United States were not able any more to meet the gold standard. With a rise of inflation more dollars became worth less, and dollars holders around the globe sought the safety of gold. As a consequence, many nations were unable to maintain the value of their currencies under the Bretton Woods regime, and the U.S. gold reserves significantly
fell. Then, in 1973 the floating exchange rate system was created establishing markets’ prices rule. The system is dynamic, generating greater trade and capital flows. It is expanding with rapid technological innovations. In particular, the foreign exchange market has become an over-the-counter market with traders located in the offices of major commercial banks around the world. Today, communication among traders goes on using computers, telephones, telexes, and faxes. Traders buy and sell currencies, but also they create prices. The exchange of currencies, however, is in the form of an exchange of electronic messages.

Most of the trading in the forex market takes places in several currencies: U.S dollar, German mark, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar. More than 80 percent of global foreign exchange transactions are still based on American dollar. There are two reasons for quoting most exchange rates against the U.S. dollar. The first has to do with simplicity to avoid enormous number of dealing markets if each currency were traded directly against each other currency. A second is to avoid the possibility of triangular arbitrage. That is, since all currencies are traded with respect to the dollar, there is only one available cross rate
and no possibility of arbitrage (Grabbe, 1996).
The forex market is 24-hour market with three major centers in different part of the world: New York, London, and Tokyo. It is the busiest in the early morning New York time since banks in London and New York are simultaneously open and trading. Its centers open and close one after the other. If it is open in Tokyo and Hong Kong, it is also open in Singapore. Then if it opens in Los Angeles in the after noon, it will be also open in Sydney the next day in the morning.
At present the forex market includes the participation of commercial banks around the globe, with a tendency tospread to corporate, funding and retail institutions.

Market Analysis Australian

Australian Forex Market Analysis

The need for intelligent monitoring systems has become a necessity to keep track of the complex forex market. The forex market is difficult to understand by an average individual. However, once the market is broken down into simple terms, the average individual can begin to understand the foreign exchange market and use it as a financial instrument for future investing. This paper is an attempt to compare the performance of a Takagi- Sugeno type neuro-fuzzy system and a feed forward neural network trained using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm to predict the average monthly forex rates. The exchange values of Australian dollar are considered with respect to US dollar, Singapore dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen and United Kingdom pound. The connectionist models were trained using 70% of the data and remaining was used for testing and validation purposes. It is observed that the proposed connectionist models were able to predict the average forex rates one month ahead accurately. Experiment results also reveal that neuro-fuzzy technique performed better than the neural network.

Keywords: Forex prediction, neurocomputing, neuro-fuzzy computing, scaled conjugate gradient

1 Introduction
Creating many international businesses, the globalization has made the international trade, international financial transactions and investment to rapidly grow. Globalisation is followed by foreign exchange market also known as forex. The forex is defined as a change in a market value relationship between national currencies (at a particular point in time) that produces profits, or losses, for all foreign currency traders (Long and Walter, 2001). As such, it plays an important role of providing payments in between countries, transferring funds from one currency to another and determining the exchange rate (Forexcapital, 2001).
The forex is the largest and the most liquid market in the world with a daily turnover of around

1 trillion U.S.
dollars (Usfxm, 2001). It was founded in 1973 with the deregulation of the foreign exchange rate in the USA and other developed countries. Namely, before 1973 the fixed exchange rates regime was used for global currency relationships. It was based on the Bretton Woods’ agreement from 1944 with American dollar as an anchor for all free world currencies. The American dollar has been a reserve currency for the world that was
based on gold standard. No other country guaranteed to exchange its currency for a gold. However, in 1960s and early 1970s the global economic crisis brought on by the worldwide inflation has shown that The United States were not able any more to meet the gold standard. With a rise of inflation more dollars became worth less, and dollars holders around the globe sought the safety of gold. As a consequence, many nations were unable to maintain the value of their currencies under the Bretton Woods regime, and the U.S. gold reserves significantly
fell. Then, in 1973 the floating exchange rate system was created establishing markets’ prices rule. The system is dynamic, generating greater trade and capital flows. It is expanding with rapid technological innovations. In particular, the foreign exchange market has become an over-the-counter market with traders located in the offices of major commercial banks around the world. Today, communication among traders goes on using computers, telephones, telexes, and faxes. Traders buy and sell currencies, but also they create prices. The exchange of currencies, however, is in the form of an exchange of electronic messages.

Most of the trading in the forex market takes places in several currencies: U.S dollar, German mark, Japanese yen, British pound sterling, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar. More than 80 percent of global foreign exchange transactions are still based on American dollar. There are two reasons for quoting most exchange rates against the U.S. dollar. The first has to do with simplicity to avoid enormous number of dealing markets if each currency were traded directly against each other currency. A second is to avoid the possibility of triangular arbitrage. That is, since all currencies are traded with respect to the dollar, there is only one available cross rate
and no possibility of arbitrage (Grabbe, 1996).
The forex market is 24-hour market with three major centers in different part of the world: New York, London, and Tokyo. It is the busiest in the early morning New York time since banks in London and New York are simultaneously open and trading. Its centers open and close one after the other. If it is open in Tokyo and Hong Kong, it is also open in Singapore. Then if it opens in Los Angeles in the after noon, it will be also open in Sydney the next day in the morning.
At present the forex market includes the participation of commercial banks around the globe, with a tendency tospread to corporate, funding and retail institutions.

WORLD ---------------Market --------------------- WATCH

WORLD ---------------Market --------------------- WATCH

Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 09/10/2008 US Auto Bailout helps Global market sentiment

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY ? 9th December 2008 (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Global equities rallied yesterday as the market absorbed President elect Obama?s new multi billion dollar infrastructure plan. Also of note was the moving ahead of the US automakers Bailout bridge loans. The USD was weaker as commodities surged on perceived demand for these projects and safe haven flows decreased. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 62.43 points (4.14%) and the Dow Jones was up 298 points (3.46%). Crude Oil closed up $2.90 ending the New York session at $43.70 per barrel. Looking ahead, October Pending Home sales are expected to fall -3.2% vs. -4.6% previously.

The Euro (EUR) staged a major rally as risk taking increased and USD weakened. Large EUR/JPY buying buoyed the major past resistance at 1.2900. Most European bourses gained over 5% and the market mood was extremely optimistic. Eurozone data was weak though with German October Industrial Production seen -2.1% after falling -3.6% previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2730 and a high of 1.2967 before closing the day at 1.2920. Looking ahead, German Zew survey is forecast at -55 vs. -53.5 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) lost ground against all pairs as the safe haven currency was sold on renewed risk appetite in the market. USD weakness kept USD/JPY gains to a minimum but carry trades led by AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY enjoyed sizable gains. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.58 and a high of 93.91 before closing the day around 93.20 in the New York session. UPDATE Q3 GDP revised lower to -0.5% vs. -0.1% initial.

The Sterling (GBP) was another major benefactor of improved market sentiment, surging higher and testing 1.5000 as Oil rallied and global stocks made. UK PPI dropped -0.7% m/m vs. -0.4% expected as demand slumped. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4700 and a high of 1.5047 before closing the day at 1.4900 in the New York session. Looking ahead, October Industrial Output is seen -0.5% vs. -0.2%. Also released Manufacturing Production seen at -0.6% vs. -0.8% previously. Finally the UK trade balance is seen unchanged in October at -7.5% vs. -7.48%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) like other higher yielding currencies got a major boost from the improved market sentiment and gains in the commodity index. The Australian Economy while slowing is still not in recession and this is helping to support the AUD relative to other currencies. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6471 and a high of 0.6690 before closing the US session at 0.6625. UPDATE Australian November Business Confidence fall to -30 vs. -29 previously. Record low.

Gold (XAU) gained as Oil rallied over 5% on the day and the USD weakened. Overall trading with a low of USD$759 and high of USD$782.5 before ending the New York session at USD$772 an ounce.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY


Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2

EUR/USD 1.2628 1.2682 1.2925 1.2968 1.3000

USD/JPY 91.59 92.50 93.00 93.91 95.95
GBP/USD 1.4526 1.4679 1.4880 1.5070 1.5397
AUD/USD 0.6294 0.6453 0.6625 0.6696 0.6758
XAU/USD 741.70 754.26 775.00 786.00 830.0

Euro 1.2925 Initial support at 1.2682 (Dec 8 low) followed by 1.2628 (Dec 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2968 (Nov 27 high) at followed by 1.3000 (Key Level)

Yen ? 93.00
Initial support is located at 92.50 (Dec 8 low) followed by 91.59 (Dec 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.91 (Dec 8 high) followed by 95.95 (Nov 26 high).

Pound ? 1.4880
Initial support at 1.4679 (Dec 8 low) followed by 1.4526 (Dec 5). Initial resistance is now at 1.5070 (Dec 2 high) followed by 1.5397 (Dec 1 high).

Australian Dollar ? 0.6625
Initial support at 0.6453 (Dec 8 low) followed by the 0.6294 (Dec 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6696 (Nov 14 high) followed by 0.6758 (Nov 11 high).

Gold ? 775
Initial support at 754.26 (Dec 8 low) followed by 741.7 (Dec 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 786.5 (Dec 2 high) followed by 830 (Nov 25 high

Industrial Index Stock Market Index

Stock Market Index:

Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI) is the most cited stock index which is the index of prices of 30 stocks of major U.S Industrial Corporations but it has two major problems.
It is not diversified enough to accurately reflect the wide spectrum in the U.S.
It corresponds to a portfolio strategy that is not suitable as a performance benchmark
Therefore, most professional investors prefer to use other indexes like the Standard & Poor's 500 (S & P 500)


Company Base Year Now No. of Shares Market Value

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Base Year Now
-----------------


IBM $ 100 $ 50 200 million

DEC $ 50 $ 110 100 million $ 20 billion $ 10 billion

$ 5 billion $ 11 billion

Total
$ 25 billion $21 billion
Weight 20 / 25 = 0.8 5 / 25 = 0.2
Decline of 25-2125= 0.16 or 16%





DJI - Type Index = Avg. of Current Stock Price x 100
............................Avg. of
Base year Stock Prices........................($ 50 + $ 100) / 2 x 100.........
.......($ 100 + $ 50) / 2= 106.67 or increase of 6.67%
S & P - Type Index = (Weight of IBM x Current Price of IBM
.Base year Stock Prices.......+.....Weight of IBM x Current Price of DEC..................................................Avg. of Base year Stock Prices) x100(0.8 x 0.5 + 0.2 x 2.2) x 100.............L..........= 0.84 or 84%, a decrease of 16%
Thus, the index shows a 16% decline, which accurately reflects the total market value of the all Stocks

Judges back in the Courts.

K.E.S INDEX 'll rise on Tuesday due to the Judges back in the Courts. Latest

Index Value Change %

DOW JONES INDUS.AVG 13,595.10 27.23 0.20%
S&P 500 INDEX 1,509.65 1.21 0.08%
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2,810.38 15.55 0.56%
FTSE 100 INDEX 6,530.60 55.50 -0.84%
CAC 40 INDEX 5,720.42 10.50 -0.18%
DAX INDEX 7,849.49 31.36 -0.40%
NIKKEI 225 16,517.48 352.92 -2.09%
HANG SENG INDEX 30,468.34 1,024.54 -3.25%
BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX 19,976.23 251.88 1.28%
GOLD 100 OZ FUT (USD/t oz.) 808.500 14.800 1.86%
SILVER FUTURE (USD/t oz.) 14.599 0.274 1.91%
U.S. DOLLAR vs EURO 1.4498 0.0092 0.64%
NYMEX CRUDE FUTURE 95.93 2.44 2.61%